RUSSIAN VICTORY DAY PARADE 2021 FREE
“This is no magic pill for them, it’s not a get-out-of-jail free card for Putin,” Edmonds said, noting that by the time new troops were brought up, the “Russians could be falling apart”.įearing defeat, Russia may threaten to raise the stakes even further. He also questioned whether it would be “technically possible” – “What can you do with the mobilised people? Which officers and military units can deal with them?” “Proclaiming mobilisation will make this war highly unpopular,” said Pavel Luzin, a Russian military expert. It would be highly disruptive to the economy and would further raise the stakes in a war where Russia has already disappointed on the battlefield. A number of enlistment offices have been targeted in arson attacks since March, including one in remote Nizhnevartovsk last week as rumours of a coming mobilisation grew.īut a formal mobilisation, which could see tens of thousands of reservists pulled from their jobs, and borders closed to fighting-age men, is something that Russia has never managed before. The Kremlin has denied it is planning a mobilisation, although some Russians have leaked call-up papers and state orders relating to a potential mobilisation online. Russian self-propelled artillery vehicles roll during a dress rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade in Moscow.
“I’m quite curious: how will they explain this to their own people?” “Russia has already moved to covert mobilisation and is preparing to announce open mobilisation in the near future,” said Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, in an interview this week with the Ukrainian news outlet New Times. Ukrainian officials in particular have warned that Putin is planning to announce a mass mobilisation, or even to declare war against Ukraine, calling up personnel and resources that were untapped under Russia’s so-called “special operation” that began on 24 February. Dramatic options include escalation through a formal declaration of war or general mobilisation – or de-escalating by proclaiming victory.Īlternatively, Putin could offer up a “sandwich”, as one analyst put it, that praises the Russian army’s “victory” while preparing the population for a grinding and painful conflict as status quo. And the coming weeks are going to be the telltale of where this is going.”įacing setbacks, officials have suggested that Vladimir Putin may use the May 9 holiday to repackage the war in Ukraine. And given how effective the Ukrainians have been with our support, I just don’t think they’re going to be able to achieve their objectives within the coming weeks.
“Militaries just don’t recover that quickly from such a devastating loss. “With the current force that they have, the push that they’re attempting now is all that they have left,” said Jeffrey Edmonds, former director for Russia on the US national security council and senior analyst at the CNA thinktank.
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